The hottest new deal to stimulate demand rebound h

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The "red may" of the real estate market in the hot cities stimulated by the new deal to stimulate the demand rebound appears at first sight

the "red may" of the real estate market in the hot cities stimulated by the new deal to stimulate the demand rebound appears at first sight

June 6, 2018

[China paint information]

"red may" appears at first sight, becoming the epitome of the real estate market in hot cities. According to the statistics of Centaline real estate, in May this year, new houses in 20 hot cities sold 16.08 million square meters, up 15.1% month on month and 23.6% year on year

"if every project is sold out at the opening, it indicates that the market demand is still very strong, and it is usually not far from the rebound of trading volume." Since this year, Xi'an property market has been in a state of short supply. With the increase of approved pre-sale projects, the market has significantly warmed up in May. In this regard, a person from a real estate enterprise in Xi'an interpreted this to the 21st century economic report

"red may" has suddenly appeared, becoming the epitome of the real estate market in hot cities. According to the statistics of Centaline real estate, in May this year, new houses in 20 hot cities sold 16.08 million square meters, up 15.1% month on month and 23.6% year on year

the transaction of second-hand houses also increased significantly, but the range was less than that of new houses. According to the statistics of institutions, the trading volume of hot cities has reached the highest value in the past year, and the trading prices of Beijing and other cities have also slightly corrected

the market logic of new houses and second-hand houses is different. As hot cities enter the era of stock, the latter is mostly driven by the demand for housing replacement. The former, due to the inverted price of second-hand houses, has spawned a lot of demand. But behind the warming of hot cities, commonalities still exist: the decline in inventory leads to changes in the logic of supply and demand, and the settlement of the new deal leads to the release of demand

trading volume increased

in May this year, among the 20 hot cities counted by Centaline real estate, the transaction area of new houses in 16 cities increased month on month, and 13 cities increased year on year. Among them, the transaction area of first tier cities increased by 35% month on month and 4.5% year on year. Among them, Beijing increased by 114% month on month, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen also increased by more than 22%

Beijing is not the largest increase among the above-mentioned hot cities. The largest month on month increase was in Nanning, where the trading area increased by 166.4%; The largest year-on-year increase was in Chengdu, with the trading area up 246.9%

after the 2018 Spring Festival, the supply of new houses in many hot cities fell short of demand. According to the survey of 21st Century Business Herald, it is very common for many people to grab a suite in Xi'an real estate market due to seasonal shortage of supply; The phenomenon of "10000 people lottery" appeared in Chengdu real estate market. The winning rate of popular real estate projects is mostly in single digits, and some projects are even less than 1%

the aforementioned Xi'an real estate enterprises said that due to environmental protection considerations, Xi'an has just experienced a winter shutdown of about four months, so the supply of new houses is seasonally insufficient. In addition, the price limit policy is relatively strict, and many projects delay the opening time, resulting in a shortage of new houses in Xi'an at the beginning of the year

according to the 21st Century Business Herald, in Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other hot cities, the price of first-hand and second-hand houses has been inverted recently, which has stimulated buyers to enter the new housing market. However, in recent months, the government departments have loosened their contact with the company in the pre-sale price approval. The supply of new houses has rebounded, which has driven the trading volume to rise, and the "scissors gap" of the price of first-hand and second-hand houses has also narrowed

in contrast, the second-hand housing market is less popular than the new housing market, but it has also shown a warming trend. According to the monitoring of 10 typical cities by Shanghai E-House Research Institute, about 75000 second-hand houses were sold in ten cities in May, an increase of 16% month on month and 2% year on year. In terms of absolute volume, the trading volume in May was the highest in recent 11 months

in some cities with large stock of housing, the warming of second-hand housing transactions is more obvious, which reflects the warming trend of the overall market

take Beijing as an example. According to the statistics of I love my home market research institute in the next five years, a total of 18096 second-hand residential units were signed in Beijing in May, up 67.5% year-on-year and 32.3% month on month. This is the first time since March 2017 that they have risen synchronously with the same period of the same period of the same period of the same period, and the absolute value has reached a new high in 14 months. In terms of price, the average transaction price of second-hand housing in Beijing in May increased by 0.6% month on month compared with April, and the increase was slightly increased by 0.3 percentage points compared with April

Hujinghui, President of my home market research institute, said that after the "317 New Deal" last year, the pace of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing slowed significantly. After the Spring Festival this year, with the further warming of the market, buyers' consideration time before buying houses will be shortened, the number of house visits will be reduced, decisions will be made more quickly, and the pace of market transactions will be significantly accelerated

the salesperson of Lianjia real estate in dingfuzhuangmen, Chaoyang District, Beijing also reported that after the Spring Festival this year, the number of new houses and views in this area increased significantly, the trading volume also increased, the transaction cycle shortened, and the quotations of some owners increased

the rebound may be limited

although the warming logic of the primary and secondary markets is different, the market background is still very similar for hot cities

according to the statistics of E-House Research Institute, by the end of April 2018, the total inventory of new commercial housing in 100 cities was 433.86 million square meters, a decrease of 0.7% month on month and 7.9% year on year. Since 2015, the inventory scale of Baicheng has shown a continuous downward trend. Among them, the second tier cities saw the largest decline

in terms of the cycle of decommissioning, in April, the inventory sales ratio of new houses in the first and second tier cities was 12.8 months and 9.9 months respectively, and the reasonable decommissioning made meimeike win the favor of some cell factories in the first and second tier in China. The cycle should be in the range of months

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline real estate, believes that under the supervision of regulators, many hot cities have increased land supply since last year, but due to various reasons, an effective housing supply has not yet been formed. Therefore, in these cities, there is a phased supply gap in the market

on the other hand, the introduction of the new settlement policy has increased the number of house purchases in hot cities, and has also become a market stimulus. Since last March, Xi'an has launched the new settlement policy twice, and has set a record of 300000 people settled in more than four months (from the beginning of 2018 to April 16). Tianjin introduced the new settlement policy in May this year, and 300000 people applied for settlement in one day

but it is worth noting that since the regulation of hot cities is still strong, it is unknown how long this rebound will last

the aforementioned Xi'an real estate enterprises said that the new housing market is completely under the control of the regulatory authorities. Once the pre-sale approval is strict, the supply and transaction volume will fall rapidly, so there is no need to worry about the overheating of the market. He also believes that as long as there is no sharp correction in the transaction price of new houses, the market will heat up normally

in terms of second-hand housing, Hu Jinghui said that from the perspective of the trend of single day signing volume, the second-hand housing transactions in Beijing in may have shown a downward trend. To some extent, this shows that the recovery of Beijing's second-hand market has come to an end, and the momentum to continue to heat up is probably insufficient. Next, the trading volume of Beijing's second-hand housing may not increase significantly, and the market will enter a peak stabilization period

Zhang Dawei also believes that may is already in the "little spring" cycle, and the market warming is not enough to fear. However, we should pay close attention to the changes in house prices to avoid jumping. He also said that in May alone, more than 40 cities issued more than 50 regulatory policies, with an unprecedented intensity. Under this pressure, the power of the market to rebound sharply is not sufficient

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